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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2018–Jan 8th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Small loose wet avalanches are possible in isolated areas on steep slopes Monday. Take care in steep extreme terrain exposed to terrain traps. Early season hazards still exist. 

Detailed Forecast

Small loose wet avalanches are possible in isolated areas Monday due to mild freezing levels and partial clearing expected late morning through the afternoon. Take care in steep extreme terrain exposed to terrain traps.  

Shallow storm or wind slabs are unlikely to be found in the Hurricane Ridge area Monday, but may exist in other parts of the Olympics especially near and above treeline. 

Early season hazards still exist. Many creek beds have still not filled in for the winter.

Snowpack Discussion

Mixed precipitation at Hurricane Ridge on Sunday did little to change the overall strong snowpack in the Hurricane Ridge area. Morning snowfall mixed with freezing rain/sleet as warm air aloft and surprisingly cold air trapped near Hurricane Ridge persisted during the daylight hours of Sunday. 

A strong and well settled snowpack exists throughout the area. 

Layers can still be found in the upper snowpack, but current conditions and observations do not suggest that any of these layers will be of concern.

The height of snow across the terrain is quite variable. Numerous obstacles still exist at all elevations.

Observations

NPS rangers Sunday morning reported snowfall on the drive up to Hurricane Ridge had begun to mix with ice pellets by 8 am Sunday morning. Temperatures stayed below freezing at Hurricane Ridge on Sunday with continuous light precipitation and gusty south winds. 

NWAC Pro Observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge Thursday, January 3rd. Matt reported a lack of surface crust in the area due to several days of above freezing temperatures and cloud cover. Travel conditions were reportedly quite good. Observations showed a strong and well bonded snowpack which was unlikely to be affected by the rain Friday. Matt noted the highly variable snow cover with snow heights changing as much as 50% in some places within just a few feet away.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.