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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2013–Mar 4th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

Synopsis:  The pineapple express is being replaced with a ridge of high pressure that should remain in place for the foreseeable future.  A weak frontal wave makes it’s way inland Tuesday, but confidence in the exact timing and intensity are poor on Tuesday. Monday: Freezing level at 1000m.  No significant precip.  Increasing cloud cover.  Light east wind.Tuesday: Freezing level around 600m.  Light E/SE wind.  Isolated flurries with no significant accumulation.  Wednesday: Freezing level around 500m.  Light S wind.  No significant precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

Visibility has been limited, as a result there hasn't been much in the way of avalanche observations.  A few natural size 3 avalanches in the north of the region were reported Saturday from SE facing slopes.  With clear skies on Sunday, I imagine observations will increase.

Snowpack Summary

The Caribous picked up an extra 20 - 40 cm Saturday night which brings the recent storm total to 60 - 100cm.  Strong winds out of both the SW and more recently NW have formed wind slabs on lee aspects in the alpine and wind exposed treeline elevations. The freezing level rose to around 1200m mid storm which has resulted in 4 cm of unfrozen schmoo/slush now buried by 25 cm of lighter density snow on many slopes below treeline.  The Feb. 12 SH is now down 100 - 150 cm.  This layer along with a deeper weak layer from late January continue to show planar failures when moderate to hard forces are applied in snow pack tests. These deeper layers have not been reactive to the weight of a rider as of late.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.