The hazard may go higher than forecast on solar aspects in the afternoon. Pay attention to the danger presented by large mature cornices.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: An arctic high pressure ridge in the interior of BC will cool things down before the next Pacific frontal wave arrives on Monday..Tonight: Cloudy, freezing level at valley bottom, winds light, from the south west.Sunday: Sunny with some cloudy periods, no precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 1300 metres, light ridge top winds from the south west.Monday: Cloudy with flurries, freezing level around 1300 metres, winds light to moderate from the south east.Tuesday: Cloudy with snow, 10 to 20 cm in the forecast, freezing level at 1400 metres, winds light to moderate from the south.
Avalanche Summary
No reports of avalanches from yesterday Caution should be exercised on solar aspects as the spring sun begins to heat things up. Cornices are becoming large and mature and deserve serious respect.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 60cm of snow has fallen in parts of the forecast region in the past 7 days. This storm snow combined with winds continues to produce wind slabs at tree line and above. A well developed sun crust has formed on solar aspects and, prior to this storm, surface hoar formed on shady, sheltered slopes. At lower elevations, a melt-freeze (or rain) crust can be expected in most areas. Below the storm snow, the snowpack is generally well settled from the recently warm weather. Two persistent weak layers remain a concern but these have become less reactive recently. The early-March crust/facet layer is down roughly 1m and the early February layer is down 1.5m or more. These layers are now deep enough that human-triggering is unlikely, but smaller avalanches or cornices failures have the potential to step down to these layers, and,.... cornices are definitely getting larger these days. Lowered freezing levels are good for overnight recovery of the snowpack below 1700 metres. Daytime warming could produce loose, wet avalanches below 1700m especially on steep solar aspects.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.