Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Feb 8 – 9, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Warming and solar radiation will continue to drive the Avalanche Danger on Tuesday. Avalanches will become more frequent and destructive throughout the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–6
    In the north of the region, persistent weaknesses continue to produce large and destructive avalanches in higher elevation terrain. Conservative terrain selection is still critical.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Although recently formed storm slabs have gained significant strength, they may remain sensitive to rider triggering in high elevation lee terrain.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Soaring freezing levels and solar radiation a Tuesday will spark ongoing loose wet avalanche activity on sun-exposed slopes. Warming may also trigger large cornices or destructive wet slab avalanches.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

On Tuesday expect mainly clear skies, and freezing levels at about 3500m. On Wednesday the region should see increased cloud and freezing levels dropping to about 2200m. Moist snowfall (5-10cm) is forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday. Ridgetop winds should remain mainly moderate from the southwest for the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, a size 3 persistent slab avalanche was triggered naturally in the Birkenhead Lake area. The aspect and elevation are unknown; however, the mid-January surface hoar was the likely culprit. This speaks to the ongoing touchy persistent slab problem in the north of the region. On the same day, 2 people were partially buried and 1 person was fully buried in a size 2.5 slab avalanche on a south-facing alpine feature in Marriott Basin. The exact failure plane of the slide was unknown, but warming was thought to have played a major role in initiating the human triggered avalanche. Hats off to everybody who pulled-off a successful rescue. Check out the great Mountain Information post for more details. At the time of publishing this bulletin on Monday, observations were extremely limited but I suspect there was a very widespread natural loose wet avalanche cycle in response to warming and solar radiation. Similar action is expected on Tuesday. Warming will also increase the likelihood of triggering wet slabs and deep and destructive persistent slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Continued high freezing levels and solar radiation will leave most surfaces moist or wet on Tuesday. This warming will also continue to have a significant destabilizing effect on the snowpack. On Friday between 25-40cm of new snow fell. Strong southwest winds shifted these accumulations into deep and dense storm slabs. Cornices were already large before the storm, and new growth is expected to be fragile. About 50-80cm below the surface, you'll likely find a rain crust which formed on January 28th. This crust is widespread and exists up to about 1900m. Previous wet and heavy storms have likely flushed out the deeper mid-January surface hoar in the south of the region; however, this weakness which lies between 60 and 130cm below the surface is still reactive at higher elevations in the Duffey, Hurley and Birkenhead areas. This layer continues to produce sudden results in snowpack tests and has been responsible for recent destructive avalanches.

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