Avalanche forecast

Nelson Lakes

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
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Highlights

A mix of sunshine and clouds in the forecast for tomorrow could result in a widespread loose wet avalanche problem. Consider the slopes above you and the timing of your travel, especially on solar aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    With a mix of sun and cloud in the forecast, a greenhouse effect can take place, softening the snow quickly and resulting in loose wet avalanches.

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Care will be required on the south and eastern aspects, particularly at upper elevations, where recent snow has been redistributed by strong west winds. Care will be required, particularly at upper elevations.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Widespread storm slab activity to size 2.5 observed further north on the Main Divide. Suspect a widespread loose wet cycle to have occurred on solar aspects.

https://www.avalanche.net.nz/observations

Current Snowpack Conditions

Up to 40 cm of storm snow has fallen above 1800meters on the western side of the park, with less snow to the east. The recent storm snow was accompanied by moderate to strong winds, resulting in wind slabs at higher elevations lee to the northwest. Warm temperatures earlier in the week have resulted in a well-settled lower snowpack, and the storm snow is settling and bonding well apart from isolated wind slabs.

Mountain Weather

Mainly fine, some evening cloud.

Wind at 1000 metres

Light. Northeasterly 50 km/h developing in the evening.

Wind at 2000 metres

Light, northeasterly 30 km/h developing in the morning, rising to 50 km/h in the evening.

Freezing level

1700 metres, lifting to 2000 metres in the afternoon.

Sliding Danger

Some wind-scoured slopes may be hard. Ice axe and crampons will need to be carried for mountain travel.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain due to the variability of wind effect on the snowpack.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

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