We are expecting a poor freeze overnight with light rain at lower elevations and some snow at the higher areas. Cornices are also drooping right now so give them a wide berth.
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Forecasts are calling for continue light snowfalls along the divide overnight so we may see up to 10cm of snow at higher elevations. Cloudy conditions are expected so we are forecasting a poor overnight freeze and as a result, stability will remain at the current considerable level. If the forecasted temps come true, we will see the danger decrease as the snowpack begins to re-freeze. If the sun comes out, watch for rapid decreases in stability related to solar radiation. These decreases will be most apparent on steep solar aspects.
Avalanche Summary
No new slab avalanche activity was observed but there were numerous loose wet slides up to sz 1.5.
Snowpack Summary
Rain continued on friday up to 2500m and continued light flurries above this elevation. There was a very minimal freeze overnight on thursday and as a result, the top 10-30cm of the snow is wet. Above 2300m there is a widespread crust on solar aspects up to 2600m. Northern aspects are still holding dry snow but we have certainly transitioned into the time wherein if you want dry snow, you must be on a true north aspect and high into the alpine. The windslabs seem to be only found in isolated alpine areas but we are still getting moderate sudden collapse sheers in the basal facets down 150-180cm. Pin wheeling was observed on all aspects up to 2500m so ski quality is taking a turn for the worse.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.