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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 4th, 2013–Dec 5th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

This forecast is based on limited field observations. If you head into the mountains, please send a note to [email protected] and let us know what you saw.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Thursday through Saturday: Sunny and cold. Treeline temperatures are around -20 to -25 with moderate northeasterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported but incoming field data is still very limited. Several areas to the south in the Monashees have reported a number of natural and rider triggered avalanches up to Size 3 in the past couple days.

Snowpack Summary

30-50 cm of recent storm snow overlies a variety of old snow surfaces including surface hoar in sheltered areas and/or sun crust on steep south facing slopes. There are two distinct weaknesses within the mid and lower snowpack: the early November surface hoar is down roughly half way (50-60cm) and the October rain crust is near the ground. While these layers have recently become dormant, any additional load from new snow, wind-loading and/or rain may cause these layers to reactivate in isolated areas causing large, destructive avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.