Jasper National Park Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 12th, 2021 4:00PM

Mon Apr 12th Current Conditions
Alpine Moderate Treeline Low Below Treeline Low
Tue Apr 13th 2 Day Outlook
Alpine Moderate Treeline Moderate Below Treeline Moderate
Wed Apr 14th 3 Day Outlook
Alpine Considerable Treeline Considerable Below Treeline Considerable

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet, Cornices and Deep Persistent Slabs.

A change in the weather pattern is underway. Watch for rising freezing levels and strong solar radiation to increase avalanche danger.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Sunny. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: High -2 C. Ridge wind light to 10 km/h. Freezing level: 2000 metres.

Wednesday: Sunny. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: Low -5 C, High 2 C. Ridge wind light to 15 km/h. Freezing level: 2400 metres.

Snowpack Summary

Light winds shifting to the north, new sun crust on solar asp to TL and temperature crust all aspects BTL below 1900m. Previous new snow now settled. March 19th crust is buried 10-50cm+ on solar aspects to 2200m. Mid-pack is firm and bridging a weak lower snowpack in deep areas. Weak snowpack particularly where shallow (exposed alpine features).

Avalanche Summary

A few cornice failures in the Whistlers area were pulling deeper slabs on Monday. One noticeable large avalanche running to ground off the north face of Manx Peak. These are good reminders that large slab avalanches up to size 3 are still occurring within the bulletin region in the alpine.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Keep an eye out for rising temperatures and solar radiation

  • Finish ice climbs early in the day before the temperature rises.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects:

North, North East, East.

Elevations:

Treeline, Below Treeline.

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices

Likelihood

Likely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Cornices could wake up with increasing temperatures and strong solar radiation. If cornices fail they can trigger deeper instabilities. If you need to travel below cornices move quickly and reduce your exposure.

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.

Aspects:

North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations:

Alpine.

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

Likelihood

Possible - Unlikely

Expected Size

2 - 3.5

Forecasters are noting a slight increase in activity in the past few days. One could say the probability is increasing with either natural or human triggering. Shallow snowpack areas would have the increased potential for human triggering.

  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects:

All aspects.

Elevations:

Alpine.

Valid until: Apr 13th, 2021 4:00PM

Forecast Trend

The latest forecast danger ratings, broken down to elevation. See how an elevation is trending.