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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 23rd, 2012–Mar 24th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Strong solar radiation and mild temperatures this weekend will result in elevated avalanche danger during the day, particularly on sun-exposed slopes.

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure should maintain mostly dry and sunny conditions throughout the forecast period. There is a chance of more cloud and light precipitation on Monday if a forecast frontal system pushes a little further north. The freezing level is around 900m on Saturday and 1200-1500m on Sunday and Monday. Winds are generally light from the south.

Avalanche Summary

There are a couple reports of skier triggered Size 1-1.5 slab avalanches from immediate lee features near ridge crests. Loose dry sluffing was observed in steep terrain. There were also a few reports of cornice failures on the weekend, but most did not trigger slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 25cm of new snow covers the previous surface which included a sun crust on southerly aspects, surface facets or surface hoar in cool shady areas, and pockets of wind slab in exposed terrain. Moderate southerly winds have created new wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain. The mid February persistent weak layer interface, comprised of spotty surface hoar, facets and crusts, is buried 80-120 cm below the surface. No recent activity has been reported on this interface. However, recent snowpack tests have been giving hard but sudden "pop" results and indicate it is has the potential to react given the right trigger in the right place. For route selection, it should still be on your radar and is more likely to be triggered on steeper, unsupported terrain. Cornices in the area are reported to be very large and primed for natural collapse or triggering by a person.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Thin wind slabs may be triggered in exposed lee and cross-loaded features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches are likely in steep south-facing terrain if the sun is shining.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Large cornices exist in alpine terrain. A failure could be destructive by itself, and could also trigger an avalanche on the slope below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6