Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 16th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs.
bchristie,
Avalanche Canada
Continue to choose terrain that has been sheltered from the recent south and southwest winds. The weight of a rider is enough to start avalanches below ridge tops, on convex rolls, and in cross-loaded features.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
Weather Forecast
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Moderate northwest wind. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom. Treeline high around -10 °C.Â
Monday: Mostly clear. No new snow expected. Light to moderate northwest wind. Treeline high around - 10 °C. Possible temperature inversion setting up.
Tuesday: Scattered clouds. No new snow expected. Variable light wind. Treeline high around -8 °C. Possible temperature inversion could result in temperatures warmer than -10 above 1500 m.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. 1-4 cm of snow expected. Moderate to strong south wind. Treeline high around -8 °C. Possible temperature inversion could result in temperatures warmer than -10 above 1500 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday in White Pass (Fraser Chutes/Ridge), a group found that skiers could trigger avalanches on convex features around treeline. See their Mountain Information Network post here for more details.
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On Saturday in White Pass, a small, rider triggered windslab avalanche was reported on a North aspect in the alpine. Check out the Mountain Information Network post here for more information.Â
Remember that a lack of observed avalanches does not necessarily mean that there is a lack of avalanche activity. If you are getting out in the backcountry, and have conditions information, or even just good vibes and good photos to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network (MIN).Â
Snowpack Summary
10-20 cm of recent storm snow has been redistributed by moderate to strong southwest wind. Lighter winds are forecasted through Monday, but In terrain exposed to the wind, reactive windslabs may still exist in lee features.
For a good summary of the treeline and below conditions in White Pass, check out this Mountain Information Network post from Sunday, and this one from an AST course on Saturday, all in the Fraser Chutes area.
Recent reports from White Pass have no mention of a low elevation crust on the surface. Since freezing levels were fairly high last week, it is possible you may still find a surface crust anywhere that the snow melted.
In open, wind exposed terrain at treeline, hazards like rocks and lumpy, hard wind effected snow might only be thinly buried.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
- Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
- Even a small avalanche can be harmful if it pushes you into an obstacle or a terrain trap.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Moderate to strong southeast through southwest winds have formed wind slabs in exposed terrain.
Right now, the pockets of windslab could be small, but if you are finding a frozen crust at low elevations, a windslab that formed on top may be more reactive, and a small avalanche could take you for a longer ride down the slope, and over other hazards.
Always consider which direction an avalanche could carry you, and have a safe escape route in mind.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 17th, 2022 4:00PM
