Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Kananaskis.
Recently formed wind slabs are found in virtually all terrain. Human triggering is likely. Conservative terrain choices are in order.
Confidence
High -
Weather Forecast
Monday will be mainly sunny with a high of -5C. Winds continue to be strong from the SW. No precip expected on Monday.
Avalanche Summary
The strong winds did arrive, but the predicted natural avalanche cycle did not.....at least not yet. Forecasters were surprised at the lack of natural avalanche activity, but given the large amount of recent snow and the strong winds, human-triggered avalanches are likely.
Snowpack Summary
The strong westerly winds have redistributed the recent snow onto lee and cross-loaded terrain. West aspects have been stripped down to bare rock. Wind slabs exist at all elevations and average around 30cm deep at treeline. Forecasters were surprised that these new slabs were not reactive to ski cutting, but in different areas it is quite likely that these slabs are reactive to human triggering. The Dec crust, now down 120 to 150cm, remains on the radar as a potentially serious persistent weak layer.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
- Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs are found at all elevations, and have the "feel" that they will be reactive to human-triggering, especially in convex and unsupported terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
This layer is still on the radar. While not reactive to natural triggers in recent days, this layer could produce very large avalanches if triggered.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5