Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 7th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.
mconlan,
Avalanche Canada
Continual stormy conditions are keeping danger elevated for the region. The worst is likely yet to come!
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 15 cm, 50 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 600 m.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow and rain, accumulation 10 to 15 cm, 50 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 800 m.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain, accumulation 20 to 40 mm, 70 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature 3 C, freezing level 2000 to 2500 m.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain switching to snow then clearing, accumulation 20 to 40 cm at high elevations, 50 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level dropping to 800 m.
Avalanche Summary
Many storm and wind slab avalanches were observed over the weekend, often releasing naturally during the stormy weather. Check out this MIN for examples near Shames. At low elevations, small loose avalanches were reported during periods of warm weather and rain.Â
Although reports aren't in yet, we expect to see many more similar avalanches from Monday's storm. The trend is expected to continue and perhaps worsen as the region gets hammered by more snow, rain, and strong wind in the coming days.
Snowpack Summary
The region is currently receiving around 10 to 30 cm of snow per 24-hour period, with associated strong southwest wind. Expect to find deep and touchy storm slabs in areas sheltered from the wind and new wind slabs in exposed terrain. Also expect cornices to be very large and touchy. Below around 800 m, the precipitation is falling as rain, soaking an already wet snowpack.
New snow will sit on previous storm snow that has totaled around 50 to 80 cm since early February above around 800 to 1000 m. All of this February snow may sit on a weak layer of surface hoar crystals, particularly around treeline elevations in terrain features sheltered from the wind. This layer may be found immediately above a hard melt-freeze crust.
Deeper in the snowpack, another surface hoar layer from mid-January may be found around 80 to 120 cm deep at higher elevations in sheltered terrain. This layer is most problematic where it overlies a hard melt-freeze crust.
Terrain and Travel
- Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
- Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Continual stormy conditions are rapidly building storm and wind slabs. Storm totals have reached 50 to 80 cm since early February, so slabs could be deep. These slabs will be particularly touchy where they sit on weak layers. An avalanche cycle is anticipated during each strong pulse of precipitation and wind.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Rain will fall below around 800 m, soaking an already wet snowpack. Small wet loose activity may occur in steep terrain features.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 8th, 2022 4:00PM
