Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Heavy snowfall builds deep and reactive storm slabs over a slick crust.
Avoid avalanche terrain. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
Confidence
High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
Sunday night: Snowfall 15-25 cm, 40-50 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1300 m.
Monday: Snowfall 20-45 cm, 50-60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1300 m.
Tuesday: Snowfall 20-30 cm, 30-40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1200 m.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, 10-20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 900 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, explosives and ski cuts produced size 1 loose dry avalanches. A few small to medium sized storm slabs were triggered by skiers, as reported in this MIN from Sky Pilot. Going forward, storm slabs will likely remain reactive as they increase in size through the storm.
Snowpack Summary
40-70 cm of new snow by the end of Monday brings storm totals to 70-120 cm over a hard melt-freeze crust that exists on all aspects up to 1500 m and to the mountain tops on sun-exposed slopes.
A few other melt-freeze crusts are found in the top 100 cm of the snowpack but appear to be progressively bonding.
The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
- Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs will be deep and reactive, with 70-120 cm of new and recent snow sitting over a slick crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5