Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
A mix of likely dangerous winter and spring avalanche conditions is likely at Hurricane on Sunday. The sun is getting much stronger and new snow may be very reactive to solar effects. The greatest danger should be in the afternoon and to the end of the daylight hours.
Detailed Forecast
Southwest flow should carry an energetic front and shortwave to the Northwest Saturday evening and night. Moderate west flow should carry a 2nd short wave, an upper low and a cool unstable air mass to the Northwest Sunday. This should cause southwest to west winds, rain or snow changing to snow showers and lowering snow levels on Sunday. Snow and snow showers should cause about to about 6 inches of snow at Hurricane by the end of the daylight hours on Sunday. There is a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast Sunday afternoon and evening.
A mix of likely dangerous winter and spring avalanche conditions is likely at Hurricane on Sunday. The sun is getting much stronger and new snow may be very reactive to solar effects. The greatest danger should be in the afternoon to the end of the daylight hours.
New wind slab of up to a foot seems likely near Hurricane on lee slopes on Sunday. This is most likely on north to east slopes. Watch cracking and firmer or chalky wind transported snow. Snow pits may not be helpful due to variability in the snowpack.
New storm slab layers will be likely in areas where there is rapidly accumulating snow for more than a few hours. Warming daytime temperatures may contribute to upside down layers and instability. Pay special attention to slope convexities where storm slab is mostly likely to be triggered.
 Loose wet avalanches may be possible on steep solar slopes on Sunday. Don't overstay your welcome if you start seeing pinwheels or small initial natural loose wet avalanches. Be aware of terrain traps where even a small loose avalanche could have unintended consequences if you venture out on Sunday.
Cornices have grown large recently. Cornices can break much further back on ridges than expected and releases can be unpredictable during the spring.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
Snow accumulations Wednesday to Friday following the last front were about 4-6 inches at Hurricane with new snow of over a foot on wind loaded slopes near treeline. The new snow since Monday should be well-bonded to a moist crust buried March 22nd.  ?
Frequent March storms have built large cornices along some ridges in the Hurricane Ridge area.
The mid and lower snowpack in the Olympics should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.
Recent Observations
NWAC professional observer Matt Schonwald toured in the Hurricane Ridge area Friday 3/25.  Matt generally found the new storm snow unreactive in snowpit tests and with ski cuts on test slopes. No recent avalanches were observed in the Hurricane Ridge area. Wind effects were limited to directly below ridgelines, with generally settled powder and good skiing found on non-solar aspects with less wind effect. Area cornices were firm and unlikely to trigger.Â
Hurricane Weather Station
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Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1