Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2016–Jan 17th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Carefully assess the top 50cm of the snowpack for cohesion and slab development. Storm slabs will be easily triggered and may propagate into large avalanches.

Weather Forecast

A frontal system will track into the area this morning with moderate SW winds. Light precipitation is expected with up to 10cm of accumulation by late Sunday afternoon. Freezing levels will remain below 1300m.

Snowpack Summary

In the alpine up to 40cm of new snow buries the January 4th interface. This interface is surface hoar in protected areas, sun crust on steep S - SW aspects and loose facets at tree-line and below. Where wind-affected, storm slabs have formed in lee features. At lower elevations, the mild temp's and snow settlement are creating storm slabs.

Avalanche Summary

Three size 2 avalanches were observed in the highway corridor east of Rogers Pass. The avalanches were triggered in the developing storm slab layer.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs continue to develop as warm temps, wind and snow settlement turn the upper 40cm into a cohesive layer. Slabs are most developed in exposed alpine ares. This layer is easily triggered where it sits on preserved surface hoar crystals.
Use caution in lee areas. Wind loading could create slabs.Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3