Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 2nd, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

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Use extra caution around slopes exposed to the sun and high elevation terrain that has been wind affected.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, moderate southwest wind, treeline temperatures drop to -8 C.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southwest wind, freezing level climbs to 1500 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C.

THURSDAY: Sunny, light south wind, freezing level climbs to 1800 m with treeline temperatures around 0 C.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny, light south wind, freezing level climbs to 1700 m with treeline temperatures around -1 C.

Avalanche Summary

Since the storm and associated avalanche cycle eased off early last week, there have been daily reports of size 1-2 natural and human-triggered avalanches in many areas. There have also been reports of larger (size 2-3) explosives triggered avalanches on most days. The size and frequency of these avalanches have generally decreased slightly each day.

There have been a few reports of sporadic persistent slab avalanches failing on the late January persistent weak layer in the past month, including one in the past week. 

Snowpack Summary

There is around 60-100 cm of snow sitting on a persistent weak layer of facets that was buried in mid-February. Deep wind deposits and wind slabs exist in the alpine and open treeline areas, while a thin surface crust has been reported at most elevations. Surfaces are likely starting to melt and freeze on southern slopes and at lower elevations.

There is now 80-120 cm of snow above the late January persistent weak layer which is composed of surface hoar in sheltered areas in the trees and/ or a crust on steep solar aspects. Very isolated activity on this layer has been observed in the past few weeks.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Recent (and ongoing) southwest winds are likely forming wind slabs at upper elevations. Previous variable winds may mean that wind slabs could be found on all aspects. The most reactive ones are likely to be found on northerly aspects.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

60-100 cm of snow sits on a persistent weak layer of facets that was buried in mid-February. Another persistent weak layer buried 80-120 cm deep is composed mainly of surface hoar. 

We are still seeing isolated avalanche activity on these layers, and would be a little extra cautious as slopes warm up in the coming days. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Mar 3rd, 2021 4:00PM