Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 3rd, 2018 5:26PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Cornices.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Overcast skies and isolated flurries should limit the effects of the strong late-winter sun, but you should remain wary of solar aspects where the new snow rests on a buried sun crust that may remain sensitive to human triggering.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

The forecast has changed since yesterday. Sunday looks to be cloudy with a chance of flurries for the South Coast region. Monday also looks cloudy, but clouds may give way to clear skies on Tuesday. SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to around 700 m, light west wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 800 m, light westerly wind, trace of snow possible.TUESDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to around 1000 m, light variable wind, no snow expected.

Avalanche Summary

Check out this MCR report (here) that talks about the strong late winter sun initiating natural avalanches to size 2 on Thursday. No other recent activity to report.

Snowpack Summary

The region picked up 20 to 40 cm of snow Wednesday and Thursday with moderate winds out of the east/southeast. This adds to the 50 to 70 cm that fell between Saturday and Tuesday. All of this snow rests on previously wind-affected surfaces and a sun crust on southerly aspects.A hard rain crust that extends into alpine terrain is buried about 60 to 120 cm deep. There are no substantial weak layers below the crust.Cornices have formed on many alpine ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as they are subject to the strong late-winter sun on clear days.

Problems

Storm Slabs

20 to 40 cm of recent snowfall arrived with strong wind. This slab is gaining strength and settling out quickly, but you should remain wary of south facing slopes where up to 100 cm of storm snow rests on an untrustworthy buried sun crust.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Cornices

Continued snowfall and strong wind from around the clock has formed large cornices on many ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect, especially when the sun is out.

Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.Firm cornices may pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 4th, 2018 2:00PM