Avalanche Forecast

High -

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures of -16.Thursday: Increasing cloud with scattered flurries bringing 2-4 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Light west winds. Alpine high temperatures of -12Friday: Continuing flurries bringing 3-6 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Light southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures of -10.

Sunday's reports include observations of numerous explosives-controlled persistent slab releases east of Invermere. Sizes were typically smaller, with one Size 1.5 recorded. These all occurred on north to northwest aspects in the alpine. A MIN report from the Dogtooth Range on Saturday showed remote triggered Size 1 releases occurring in sheltered areas below treeline. Another MIN report from Friday included observations of ski traffic easily producing shooting cracks in mellower terrain between 1700-2000m in the Dogtooth. These releases and cracks likely failed at the December 15th interface. Persistent slab avalanche danger can be expected to persist in areas where last week's storm snow consolidates into a slab above the December 15 interface. In areas where new snow has not yet consolidated into a slab, expect continued potential for triggering loose dry avalanches in steep terrain.

Last week's storm brought 30-50cm of new snow to the region. Predominantly northwest winds have since redistributed this storm snow into wind slabs in lee terrain at higher elevations while cold temperatures have inhibited slab formation elsewhere. Cold has also worked to decrease the cohesion and reactivity of older wind slabs.The storm snow lies over a variety of old surfaces, including large surface hoar (weak, feather-like crystals), crusts formed by sun or wind, and sugary facets. The bond at this old snow interface is of critical importance where the overlying storm snow has consolidated into a slab. The most concerning areas are those that saw pronounced surface hoar development before the storm, such as sheltered areas at and below treeline. Recent snowpack tests show wide ranging reactivity at this interface but suggest that it may be most reactive on northerly aspects. A crust which was formed by rain in late November remains a major feature in the snowpack and is down approximately 60-100cm at tree line elevations. This interface shows good signs of bonding in the Purcells, but has indicated some reactivity in steep, variably loaded alpine features in adjacent regions.