Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace to 5 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds, increasing into the morning.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong south or southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels rising to 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing about 5 cm of new snow, new snow totals of 15-30 cm, with snowfall increasing overnight. Moderate to strong southwest winds shifting south. Alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels rising to 1400 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 10-15 cm of new snow and 3-day snow totals to 50-60 cm. Moderate southwest winds easing over the day. Alpine high temperatures around -6 with freezing levels to 1400 m.

No new slab avalanches were reported in the region on Wednesday. There continue to be reports of dry loose avalanches (sluffs) running surprisingly fast and far below treeline.

Watch for avalanche danger to trend upward again on Friday night as new snow accumulates, new slabs form, and a fresh load tests layers deeper in the snowpack.

In some areas a few cm of new snow may overlie small surface hoar or a thin ice crust (noted at the Gorge near Revelstoke). Otherwise, the skiff of new snow adds to 30-50 cm of accumulated snow since Christmas day, which overlies a mixture of faceted old surface snow and small surface hoar.

This predominantly low density snow now forming the upper snowpack is most likely to be reactive in wind affected areas where it has been redistributed and stiffened into a slab. However, the two interfaces discussed above will be important to watch as new snow piles up over the weekend.

Two persistent weak layers buried in early/mid Dec. are now 80 to 150 cm below the surface. The form and distribution of these layers are HIGHLY VARIABLE and have created conditions that can vary significantly from one valley to the next. The first layer down around a metre has been primarily reported as small surface hoar. 

The next layer has been reported as a thin freezing rain crust, surface hoar, or thick rain crust depending on elevation and location. As a result, diligent investigation of the snowpack is required to get a handle on local conditions. Forecast snowfall for the weekend may reignite avalanche activity at these deeply buried interfaces.

• Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
• Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.