Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Purcell, Purcells, West Purcell.
Forecast snow and wind are expected to form fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers.
Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, numerous explosive triggered persistent slab avalanches up to size 3 on primarily northerly and easterly aspects at treeline and above.
On Tuesday, several explosive triggered deep persistent slab avalanches up to size 3.5 were reported on north and west aspects in the alpine. The weak layer was around 150 cm down.
Snowpack Summary
Forecast snow and wind are expected to form fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers.
30 - 50 cm of snow overlies a crust on sunny slopes and lower elevations, and surface hoar or facets on sheltered and shady upper elevations.
Several persistent weak layers consisting of a crust, facets, and/or surface hoar from February and January remain a concern. They are down 50 to 100 cm in most areas.
The bottom of the snowpack is composed of large facets in most areas. There is evidence that this layer is becoming reactive again, and some very large avalanches have failed on this layer recently.
Weather Summary
Thursday night
Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h south ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -7 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.
Friday
Cloudy with 10 to 25 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1600 m.
Saturday
Mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 20 km/h west winds. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.
- Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
- Use small, low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind-affected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Forecast snow and wind are expected to form fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
Triggering buried weak layers is most likely in wind-affected terrain on northerly and easterly aspects. Small avalanches in motion may trigger these deeper layers creating very large and destructive avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
There is evidence that weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack are starting to wake up. Explosives and smaller avalanches in motion have both triggered this deep weak layer recently resulting in very large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5