Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Pay close attention to temperatures and be mindful of the solar warming.
Be prepared to back off if the snow surface become moist or if the near surface crust becomes unsupportive.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Small, loose wet cycle from steep sunny slopes today.
So far the March 25th crust has added strength to the snowpack but expect natural activity to pick back up during sunny periods or if freezing levels are higher then forecast.
A rain event into the alpine caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle on Wednesday. Numerous very large wet avalanches ran down into the valley bottom. These avalanches included the deeply buried January Facets.
Snowpack Summary
10-30cm of surface snow is dry powder on northerly aspects in the alpine but becomes heavy on sun effected slopes and moist below 2000m.
Surface snow sits on a 10-25cm thick crust of variable strength formed by the rain event March 25th. Field teams reported moderate compression test results within this crust.
Moist snow can be found below this crust at tree line and below. If the persistent slab from March 25 is triggered , it may entrain large wet loose avalanches.
Weather Summary
Unsettled conditions continue Tues-Wed
Tonight Mainly cloudy. West wind 10km/hr. Freezing Level (FZL) 1400m
Tues Cloudy with sunny periods & isolated flurries. Trace precipitation. Alpine high -4 °C. Wind W 20-30 km/h. FZL1800m
Wed Partial cloud with isolated flurries. Trace precip. Alpine high -6. Wind West 15-25. FZL1400m
Thurs Cloudy with scattered flurries. 4 cm snow. Alpine high -9 °C. Wind N 15. FZL 1300m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
The March 25 rain event created a crust down 10-30cm. This persistent weak layer has variable strength & will become a problem if temps are higher then forecast or with strong solar warming.
Once this crust breaks down, moist snow trapped below the crust may entrain large wet loose avalanches
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Loose Wet
Cloudy skies with sunny periods are forecast for Tuesday , however convective weather is unpredictable. Wet loose avalanches may be likely on solar aspects if the sun starts to heat things up more then expected. See travel advice.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5