Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - The weather pattern is stable

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures near -10/ generally light winds from the northeast/ freezing level valley bottomTUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures near -12/ ridgetop winds light with strong gusts from the northwest/ freezing levels valley bottomWEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures -12/ ridgetop winds light from the northeast/ freezing levels valley bottom.

On Saturday, a natural solar triggered avalanche cycle occurred mostly from steep solar aspects up to size 1.5. A natural size 3 slab avalanche was seen on Mt. Begbie (ENE aspect above 2000 m). We suspect the triggered to be rockfall or a cornice above the slope. This avalanche may have failed on the basal crust.Last Saturday, a human triggered size 3 avalanche was reported in the region. This avalanche likely ran on the October crust, as it was reported as a full depth avalanche. Two reports on this avalanche can be found on the Mountain Information Network.

40-80 cm of recent snow sits on two layers of feathery surface hoar that are approximately buried 15 cm apart. One or both of these may be associated with a crust on south aspects. The surface hoar is mostly found at treeline, but it may be found in sheltered alpine areas. Snowpack test results on these layers are showing a variety of planar results which indicate that this interface may be susceptible to human triggers.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed near the end of October. This crust is associated with sugary weak faceted crystals and has shown some reactivity in the South Columbia region. Suspect slopes and terrain are open bowls that host a rocky thin to thick snowpack in the alpine or upper treeline. Snowpack depths taper quickly with elevation, many areas have over 200 cm in the alpine, between 100-170 cm at treeline, and 10-100 cm below treeline.