Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 15th, 2018 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

mike.koppang, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

15cm of new snow is forecast overnight with strong SW winds. Be cautious of windslabs building in Alpine areas.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Forecast models are calling for snow overnight on thursday but amounts vary from 5-15cm. Winds are forecast to decrease into the light range by Friday under a sky that is likely to be a mix of sun and cloud. We may see some additional windslab development from the forecasted strong winds overnight on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was observed or reported on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow overnight gives up around 15-20cm of recent storm snow over the past 3 days. This snow has created pockets of windslabs in Alpine areas along ridgelines and in gullies. Otherwise our main concern os for the Oct 26th crust near the "base" of the current snowpack. This layer is down 40-50cm and has a weak facetted layer overlying it. Its likely to be a concern that we talk about for some time. IMPORTANT- Field observations are still very limited at this time.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

This is still our main concern at the moment. We are having some difficulty determining the max elevation because of difficult travel. Regardless, we do know it is widespread below 2200m and will break down and become touchier as time passes.

Use caution in lee areas. Wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious of buried obstacles in shallow snowpack areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Windslabs will build overngiht with forecast new snow and moderate SW winds.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Be very cautious with gully features.The volume of sluffing could knock you over; choose your climb carefully and belay when exposed.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 16th, 2018 2:00PM