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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 15th, 2018–Nov 16th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Kananaskis.

15cm of new snow is forecast overnight with strong SW winds.  Be cautious of windslabs building in Alpine areas. 

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Forecast models are calling for snow overnight on thursday but amounts vary from 5-15cm.  Winds are forecast to decrease into the light range by Friday under a sky that is likely to be a mix of sun and cloud.  We may see some additional windslab development from the forecasted strong winds overnight on Thursday. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was observed or reported on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow overnight gives up around 15-20cm of recent storm snow over the past 3 days. This snow has created pockets of windslabs in Alpine areas along ridgelines and in gullies. Otherwise our main concern os for the Oct 26th crust near the "base" of the current snowpack. This layer is down 40-50cm and has a weak facetted layer overlying it. Its likely to be a concern that we talk about for some time. IMPORTANT- Field observations are still very limited at this time.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

This is still our main concern at the moment. We are having some difficulty determining the max elevation because of difficult travel. Regardless, we do know it is widespread below 2200m and will break down and become touchier as time passes.
Use caution in lee areas. Wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious of buried obstacles in shallow snowpack areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Windslabs will build overngiht with forecast new snow and moderate SW winds.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Be very cautious with gully features.The volume of sluffing could knock you over; choose your climb carefully and belay when exposed.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2