Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
Travel early, a warming snowpack will increase the chance for loose wet avalanches through the day. Lingering wind slabs may still be found in the high alpine.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear, light north wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1300 m.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, light southwest wind, alpine temperature +4 C, freezing level 2600 m.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds and isolated flurries up to 5cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature +1 C, freezing level 2300 m.
TUESDAY: Flurries 5 cm, moderate and gusty southwest wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 2700 m.
Avalanche Summary
A natural loose wet avalanche cycle was observed on Thursday with the increasing freezing level.
On Friday, a natural wet slab avalanche cycle to size 3 was reported on all aspects from 2200-2700 in the western part of the forecast region. Toward the east, natural wet loose avalanches size 1.5-2.5 were seen on north-northeast aspects at 1900 m.
Snowpack Summary
The freezing level hovered around 2300 m to 2500 m during Friday's storm. Up to 15 cm of snow likely accumulated above the freezing level. The snow fell with strong southwest wind, forming wind slabs in lee terrain features. The snowpack is wet below treeline from recent rain and warm air.
Weak and sugary faceted grains may remain at the bottom of the snowpack in the alpine, producing a low likelihood but high consequence scenario. Steep, rocky areas with a shallow snowpack are the most likely places to trigger this layer. Below 1200 m the brown pow is showing, bike season is fast approaching.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
The likelihood of loose wet avalanche activity will increase during periods of intense sun, particularly where it moistens previously dry snow at higher elevations.
- Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs and gullies that increase the consequence of small avalanches.
- Minimize overhead exposure and avoid steep slopes during periods of strong sun.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
New wind slabs may have formed above around 2300 m from recent snow and strong southwest wind. These slabs may be touchy, particularly in lee terrain features near ridges.
- Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests.
- Expect conditions to change rapidly with aspect and elevation.
- Use small, representative slopes without consequence to test the bond of the recent snow.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2