Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Tuesday: Snow beginning in the morning with up to 10-15cm by evening. Winds are forecast to become strong from the SW by mid-day with temperatures between -5c and -10c.

Wednesday: This latest storm is expected to leave us with up to 20-25cm of storm snow by Wednesday evening. Winds are forecast to be moderate from the SW with temps around -10c.

Thursday onwards: Temperatures are forecast to drop Wednesday night to bring us into a bit of a deep freeze for the weekend with temps around -20c to -25c.

No new avalanches have been reported.

There are two major concerns in the snow pack:

1. It has been very windy in the alpine and open areas of tree line for many days now. This has created extensive wind slabs up to 40cm thick. There is snow on the way along with more strong winds to create yet another wind slab. These are expected to be reactive to skier traffic. Be aware of changing conditions under your skis for the evidence of wind slabs at tree line. 

2. There is the Deep Persistent layer down about 120cm that was formed in November. It is a combination of a crust, facets and depth hoar which all together make for a very weak base. At present, the mid pack is bridging this layer, but this forecast snow and wind will add additional load to the weak base and might just be the tipping point for large avalanches. This was the case over and over again with wind events with natural avalanches occurring, the most recent being Tent Bowl that ran at size 3+. Exposure to large avalanche paths is a bit of a coin toss right now. The thing is that if the wind slab is triggered, it has good potential to step down to the Deep Persistent.

Good skiing can be found in sheltered areas with minimal overhead exposure.

• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.