Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - South East.
Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected to develop Friday afternoon. Dial your plans back if avalanche conditions deteriorate earlier in the day than forecast.
Detailed Forecast
Several waves of warm frontal moisture will impact the east slopes of the Cascades Thursday night through Friday afternoon. A strong cold front will sweep through the area late in the afternoon. A warming trend should peak in the afternoon along the east slopes of the Cascades. Rain and snow will be the heaviest in the northeast Cascades with lighter amounts seen further south until the front comes through Friday evening.Â
Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected to develop Friday afternoon. Dial your plans back if avalanche conditions deteriorate earlier in the day than forecast.Â
Wind slab should build on lee easterly aspects near and above treeline, but expect cross-loading and wind slab formation into the upper portion of the below treeline band due to the strength and duration of the winds. Â
Shallow storm slab should build and become more reactive late in the afternoon due to a warming trend and increasing precipitation. Â
Generally shallow loose wet avalanches are possible below treeline with a switch to rain at lower elevations on Friday.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
The most recent wet warm storm arrived on Valentines Day 2/14 and formed the uppermost strong rain crust in our snowpack in the Central East and Southeast Cascades while only a thin freezing rain crust was observed in the Washington Pass area.Â
A series of disturbances in cool NW flow aloft from Saturday through Tuesday caused periods of moderate to strong SW-W alpine winds and have deposited significant snow. Very strong westerly winds decreased on Wednesday following the last front. The 4 day storm snow amounts over this period ranged from 2-16 inches along the Cascade east slopes.
High clouds from a warm frontal system passed over the east slopes of the Cascades on Friday but only very light snowfall was seen near the Cascades crest in the central-east and northeast Cascades.Â
Recent Observations
North
A report from NWAC observer Jeff Ward on Tuesday for the Varden and Silverstar areas. He reported windy conditions with some ski tests producing small wind slab releases. 40 cm of storm snow was found on the Valentine's Day crust on non-wind affected slopes while some windward slopes were scoured to the crust.
A party of four skiing at Washington Pass near the highway hairpin on the east side of the pass were hit by a natural cornice released avalanche on Tuesday afternoon. Four people were caught and carried up to 1000 ft downslope. Fortunately there were no fatalities and no full burials but there were apparently some injuries. The release occurred on a very steep slope at the top of a northeast facing bowl at about 7500 ft.
Windy conditions prevented the North Cascades Heli Guides from flying on Wednesday.
Another recent and large cornice failure was observed by the NCH on Thursday in the Cutthroat drainage. Â Â
Central
No recent observations. Â
South
No recent observations.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1