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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2012–Jan 15th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Overnight Saturday: Another 5-10cm should bring storm snow amounts to 20-30cm.Sunday: Flurries. Cold temperatures, with the freezing level near valley floor. Northerly winds.Monday/Tuesday: Two main influences will battle for control of the region's weather: cold arctic air and a low pressure centre near Vancouver Island with an associated westerly flow. Expect some flurries, cold temperatures and the chance of strong outflow (northerly or easterly) winds if the arctic air dominates.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported, but I'd expect some sluffing of the dry new snow in steep terrain and possibly wind slab avalanches near ridge top to be occurring today.

Snowpack Summary

20-40cm of dry new snow has landed on a hard supportive crust in the Coquihalla area and dry facets in the Duffey Lake area. Initial reports from the Coquihalla area on Saturday indicated that the snow is bonding well to the crust. At ridgetop, south-westerly winds are likely to be creating wind slabs which may fail on the dry storm snow and/or the icy crust. Deeper in the snowpack, two persistent weak layers remain a concern only in thin snowpack areas (perhaps wind-scoured zones or relatively dry eastern ranges) and particularly in steep rocky terrain or sheltered, low-snowpack terrain. The two layers are surface hoar and/or facets associated with a crust from mid-December and/or sugary facets at the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are likely behind ridges and terrain breaks. Wind slabs may bond poorly to the old surface layers.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Loose Dry

Loose, dry new snow is likely to sluff easily in steep ground. It could gather mass and/or push you into a terrain trap.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3