Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 14th, 2012 9:38AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

Avalanche Canada pgoddard, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Overnight Saturday: Another 5-10cm should bring storm snow amounts to 20-30cm.Sunday: Flurries. Cold temperatures, with the freezing level near valley floor. Northerly winds.Monday/Tuesday: Two main influences will battle for control of the region's weather: cold arctic air and a low pressure centre near Vancouver Island with an associated westerly flow. Expect some flurries, cold temperatures and the chance of strong outflow (northerly or easterly) winds if the arctic air dominates.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported, but I'd expect some sluffing of the dry new snow in steep terrain and possibly wind slab avalanches near ridge top to be occurring today.

Snowpack Summary

20-40cm of dry new snow has landed on a hard supportive crust in the Coquihalla area and dry facets in the Duffey Lake area. Initial reports from the Coquihalla area on Saturday indicated that the snow is bonding well to the crust. At ridgetop, south-westerly winds are likely to be creating wind slabs which may fail on the dry storm snow and/or the icy crust. Deeper in the snowpack, two persistent weak layers remain a concern only in thin snowpack areas (perhaps wind-scoured zones or relatively dry eastern ranges) and particularly in steep rocky terrain or sheltered, low-snowpack terrain. The two layers are surface hoar and/or facets associated with a crust from mid-December and/or sugary facets at the base of the snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Wind slabs are likely behind ridges and terrain breaks. Wind slabs may bond poorly to the old surface layers.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Loose Dry

An icon showing Loose Dry
Loose, dry new snow is likely to sluff easily in steep ground. It could gather mass and/or push you into a terrain trap.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 15th, 2012 8:00AM