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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 9th, 2015–Feb 10th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Uncertainty surrounding a dynamic freezing level will likely keep alpine danger ratings elevated through the week.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday looks dry and warm with a freezing level around 1800m. Winds are expected to be light at all elevations. Wednesday also looks dry, but winds are expected to kick up a bit, look for moderate to strong SW winds at ridgetop and light variable winds at treeline. The freezing level should climb to around 2200m by Wednesday afternoon. Strong SW winds at ridgetop should continue into Thursday as the freezing level continues to climb. The freezing level could be as high as 3000m by Thursday evening.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday avalanche activity was limited to pin wheeling from solar aspects. At the height of the storm in the northern portion of the region avalanches ran to size 3 on the early February crust. Wet avalanches below 1950m were also observed. In the southern portion of the region several small glide avalanche releases were observed on rock slabs below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

The wet warm storm produced 50 to 80cm of snow above 2200m in the north of the region and around 30cm in the southern portion of the region accompanied by moderate to strong winds out of the SW through SE  . This snow rests on the stout early February rain crust. The bond to this crust continues to strengthen with ongoing warm temperatures. (We have not received any reports of avalanches failing below this crust.) The snow is wet below 2000m and saturated below treeline.  Warm temps this week should continue to help all the new storm snow to settle and stabilize.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Warm temps should continue to help the storm snow to settle and stabilize on Tuesday. The storm slab may become more sensitive to human triggering Wednesday as wind speed and the freezing level increase. Stay alert for changing conditions.
If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.>Slopes receiving direct sun for the first time since the storm could produce natural avalanches.>The new snow will likely require a bit more time to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches should be most problematic below treeline Tuesday, but they could be a problem at upper elevations as the freezing level begins to climb mid-week.
Be very cautious with gully features.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2