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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2016–Dec 19th, 2016
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Heavy snowfall through Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday combined with strong winds and warm temperatures will keep the avalanche danger elevated through the forecast period

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Monday: Snow heavy at times, accumulations from Sunday night through Monday 30-40cm / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature 0 / Freezing Level 800m Tuesday: Flurries or scattered showers at lower elevations, accumulations 5-10cm / Moderate to strong west wind / Alpine temperature of 1Wednesday: Cloudy with scattered flurries / Moderate to strong south wind / Alpine temperature 2

Avalanche Summary

Expect avalanche activity with new snowfall accumulating Sunday night through the day Monday combined with moderate wind and warming temperatures. Last weekend two skiers were caught in an avalanche on the North Shore on Sunday in steep, rugged terrain. There's a photo on the North Shore Rescue Facebook page.

Snowpack Summary

New moist or wet new snow overlies the variable old snow surface from late last week, which includes well settled snow on southerly aspects, loose snow on shaded aspects, isolated pockets of surface hoar, and sun crusts on steep southerly aspects. With the potential for buried surface hoar means storm snow weaknesses from this latest storm will take longer than normal to stabilize. An old rain crust is reported to be down 150 cm in the North Shore mountains. This layer is still failing on snowpack tests, but is likely difficult to trigger in most places now.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Moist new snow combined with moderate to strong southwest winds have created slabs on top of a variety of potential weak sliding layers.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features, particularly in steep terrain.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3