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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 18th, 2015–Mar 19th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Recent new snow has refreshed the skiing but the solar aspects are pretty rugged due to crusts.  Polar aspects are producing the best skiing at this time.  Watch for increasing winds throughout the day on thursday.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels are expected to drop overnight and then be around the 2000m mark again on Thursday.  Expect some mixture of sun and cloud and nothing in the way of precipitation.  Winds are forecast to be gusting into the strong range out of the SW. 

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity was observed.  But field teams were out of the area by early afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

On solar aspects expect to find a sun crust all the way up to the peaks.  This crust was still 1cm thick at 2500m on Wednesday and where is was steeper, the crust was bullet proof and hard to get an edge into.  On more shaded and northern aspects, a winter snowpack can still be found.  Pockets of windslabs should be expected along ridgelines but due to light winds over the past few days, these slabs do not appear to extend far downslope.  The freezing level on Wednesday was around 2100m and there was intense solar radiation later in the day.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Windslabs are likely to develop on Thursday with the forecasted strong winds out of the SW.  N and E slopes will be areas to be heads up as this is where the best skiing opportunities are being found.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Persistent Slabs

This layer has been with us all season and it will likely be with us all season.  Thin weak areas are the locations it may triggerable from.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Loose Wet

Solar aspects later in the day are not the place to be. Keep a close eye on temperatures.  Clouds on Thursday may limit this problem but good to keep it on your minds.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3