Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 5th, 2014 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

All forecasts point to a steady rise in temperature over the week-end. Keep this in mind as you travel in the field. Triggering an avalanche is much more likely as temps climb near (or above) zero. Front ranges are more likely to see the high temps.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Forecasted snow continues to be less and less. We are expecting some flurries, but accumulation will be negligible. Winds continue to flow out of the SW at moderate values (40km/h). The temperatures will moderate with this flow. We can expect an afternoon high of 0 on the Spray tomorrow. Alpine highs will hit -3. The lower valleys will see above 0 temps.

Avalanche Summary

nothing was noted today

Snowpack Summary

Not a lot of change lately. Below treeline, the snowpack has no real structure. The depth is there, but there is no support for skiing or snowshoeing. Expect to walk on the ground. It isn't until the treeline elevations are reached that it changes. 2300m and higher is where the wind has had a chance to create slabs. The buried slabs vary in density depending on aspect and how open the terrain is. Open areas will have a denser slab. The layers to watch continue to be the Nov 24th facets and the Nov 6 crust. At 2300m these average a depth of 60 and 80 respectively.

Problems

Wind Slabs

There may be isolated areas below treeline where these slabs will be noticed. Open areas are likely places to find this windslab. There is a chance the warm temps and sun will initiate a small cycle in the front ranges.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Avoid cross loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Thin spots, heavily wind loaded features and steep rocky terrain are areas where the Nov6th will be a bigger problem. Dig down to assess the crust and its reactivity if in question.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Dec 6th, 2014 2:00PM