Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 9th, 2016 3:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Cornices.

mike.koppang, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Forecast models vary but we may see up to 20cm of snow by Thursday afternoon with strong winds. New snow, warm temps and strong winds will create ideal conditions for slab development.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

10-18cm of snow is forecast to arrive by the end of the day on Thursday. This snow will come under the influence of a strong SW wind (60-80km/hr) and warm temps (-3C in the alpine). These are ideal conditions for new slabs to develop and build.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose dry avalanches on all aspects were observed on Wednesday. There was no new slab avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

There is now up to 20cm of recent snow overlying the March 9th crust that is being found on all aspects up to 2300m and up to ridge tops on solar aspects. This new snow is bonding well at this time but with more load and wind we can expect avalanches to occur more easily at this interface. Two other temperature crusts can be found in the upper part of the snowpack but there have been no significant avalanches on these layers of late. The Jan 6th interface is down in general 100cm to 140cm and still producing sudden collapse results that are giving forecasters little confidence in bigger terrain. Triggering of this interface from a shallow area is a definite possibility.

Problems

Wind Slabs

New slabs will be building with the forecast new snow and strong winds.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The Jan 6th layer continues to give forecasters low confidence in bigger terrain and snowpack. Be very cautious in variable snowpack areas.

Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Cornices

Cornices are large and looming right now. New snow and winds combined with warm temps may cause some of these to fail.

Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 10th, 2016 2:00PM