Solar radiation may increase the hazard higher than forecasted on south facing terrain. Give cornices a wide berth during these warm conditions.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
No snow in the forecast other than 5-10cm Sunday. Generally moderate westerly ridgetop winds with cooling temps(1800m freezing levels) after a major spike in freezing levels on Friday.
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday numerous loose wet size 1 skier controlled avalanches were reported on steep south facing aspects.
Snowpack Summary
Cornices are large and looming. Old wind slabs are well bonded but could fail with daytime heating on solar aspects. The mid February layer is down 45-65cm and is a crust in most areas. This layer is generally well bonded to the overlying persistent slab. However, in isolated ares there is surface hoar or facets overlying this crust making the interface much more likely to produce large avalanches.
Problems
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.