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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2014–Mar 14th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Sun drenched slopes will have a higher danger rating than sheltered north aspects. For more insight into the current tricky conditions, see the most recent:Forecasters Blog.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The ridge of high pressure begins to breakdown with the coming Pacific frontal system.  Snow in the forecast !Tonight: Clear periods, no precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 1300 metres. ridge top winds moderate from the west, occasionally gusting to strong.Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods, 5 to 10cm of precipitation, freezing level around 1800 metres, winds from the southwest , light to moderate, occasionally gusting to strong.Saturday: Cloudy with flurries, freezing level around 1600 metres, ridge top winds moderate to strong from the south west.Sunday: Cloudy with precipitation, 10 to 20cm possible,    freezing level around1800 metres.

Avalanche Summary

No reports of avalanches in the forecast region from yesterday. Cornices have gotten large and mature and may trigger large destructive avalanches if they fail. There have been two reports recently where human triggered avalanches were initiated from roads below clear-cuts and ran full path with destructive consequences.

Snowpack Summary

Night time cooling will help to stabilize the snowpack when there's a good freeze, but recently freezing levels have been above the valley bottom in most parts of the forecast area, leaving us with a water-saturated snow pack between valley bottom and 1600 metres in some places. When the surface crust beaks down with daytime heating any disturbance could trigger a wet dense avalanche on this type of snow. Above 1600m the previously mentioned weak layers still exist, especially on north aspects. The weak layers buried in this years snow pack are not going away soon, and may not go away until the seasons snow has completely melted, especially on north aspects.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.