Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Mar 13 – 14, 2014Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Sun drenched slopes will have a higher danger rating than sheltered north aspects. For more insight into the current tricky conditions, see the most recent:Forecasters Blog.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–5
    Rising freezing levels and solar input are major concerns right now. Wet surface snow avalanches may create a big enough load to trigger the weak layers buried deep in the snow pack. North slopes still have touchy storm slabs over weak layers.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Incoming storms are likely to be rain below 1800 metres, further adding to the water saturation in the lower elevations snow-pack. Daytime heating and nighttime cooling are a critical part of the daily hazard evaluation.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–6

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The ridge of high pressure begins to breakdown with the coming Pacific frontal system.  Snow in the forecast !Tonight: Clear periods, no precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 1300 metres. ridge top winds moderate from the west, occasionally gusting to strong.Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods, 5 to 10cm of precipitation, freezing level around 1800 metres, winds from the southwest , light to moderate, occasionally gusting to strong.Saturday: Cloudy with flurries, freezing level around 1600 metres, ridge top winds moderate to strong from the south west.Sunday: Cloudy with precipitation, 10 to 20cm possible,    freezing level around1800 metres.

Avalanche Summary

No reports of avalanches in the forecast region from yesterday. Cornices have gotten large and mature and may trigger large destructive avalanches if they fail. There have been two reports recently where human triggered avalanches were initiated from roads below clear-cuts and ran full path with destructive consequences.

Snowpack Summary

Night time cooling will help to stabilize the snowpack when there's a good freeze, but recently freezing levels have been above the valley bottom in most parts of the forecast area, leaving us with a water-saturated snow pack between valley bottom and 1600 metres in some places. When the surface crust beaks down with daytime heating any disturbance could trigger a wet dense avalanche on this type of snow. Above 1600m the previously mentioned weak layers still exist, especially on north aspects. The weak layers buried in this years snow pack are not going away soon, and may not go away until the seasons snow has completely melted, especially on north aspects.

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