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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2015–Mar 15th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Sunny conditions on Sunday will be inviting.  Resist the urge to go into steep terrain until the new storm snow has stabilized.  Ice climbers, expect the new snow to sluff from above especially when the sun hits.

Weather Forecast

The storm should have blown through by Sunday morning.  Cool clear conditions can be expected with temperature slowly rising through the week.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy snow has fallen at treeline and above.  Strong SW winds are building storm slab on lee aspects.  Deep persistent weaknesses (crusts and basal facets) exist at the base of the snowpack.  Cool temperatures will stabilize snowpack below treeline.  Sluffing out of steep terrain and cliffs is likely.

Avalanche Summary

Very poor visibility so no observations for high elevations.  Sluffing out of steep terrain was observed at peak of storm.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations on Sunday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.