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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 30th, 2013–May 1st, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Good "dust on crust" skiing can be found on moderate terrain at treeline. Watch for the effects of daytime warming such as the snow becoming less supportive and snowballing. Solar warming will rapidly destabilize the snowpack increasing the danger.

Weather Forecast

A continuation of the cool W & NW upper air flow pattern with strong winds. Temps will drop below freezing overnight in the valley bottom and remain cool at treeline elevations with a freezing level in the afternoon close to 1800m. This will creep higher into the alpine as the weekend approaches. Localized convective snow flurries are anticipated.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of new snow has fallen in the Icefields area since Saturday. This has formed pockets of windslab at and above treeline. Bonding of this slab on Southerly slopes should be considered suspect. Below the new snow  thick melt freeze crust layers cap isothermal snow below. Sun crusts extend high into the alpine on South facing slopes.

Avalanche Summary

With limited visibility at and above treeline no recent avalanches observed have been reported. Spindrift loose snow avalanches can be anticipated from steep and rocky terrain at treeline and above. Bonding between the new storm slabs and the old sun crust should be regarded as touchy with the potential of trigger of slab avalanches is possible.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.