For Monday-Tuesday, if sun is intense and freezing levels rise rapidly, expect initiation potential, danger rating, and solar impacts to increase in the afternoon especially S aspects. Good skiing is hard to find so let us know if you found some.
Weather Forecast
Ridge of high pressure may shift slightly East allowing well above normal temps for Monday - Tuesday; however, there is low confidence in this. It will be cold at night and warming during the day. Monday-Tuesday will be mainly sun, NW40-70 ridge winds, 2000m afternoon freezing level. Wednesday will bring light snow and trending colder temperatures.
Snowpack Summary
Extreme NW winds stripped alpine to tree line fetch zones. Hard slabs are present on all lee slopes tree line and above. Surface hoar is found 10-40cm down depending on wind-loading patterns. Weak basal facets dominates thin snowpack areas. Below tree line, the old storm snow is over a rotten facet base. Colder temperatures helping stability.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday, numerous full depth natural slab avalanches occurred on thin, steep, lee alpine slopes. In the days preceding, we were seeing up to size 3 from wind loading. They ran far in paths with steep run outs. No new avalanches were observed on Saturday. No patrol occurred on Sunday.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.