A warm night on Monday will lead to the snowpack weakening quickly on Tuesday. Avalanche danger should drop steadily through the week with cooler temperatures. But, if we see 10cm+ of snow on Thursday, expect danger to rise again, with new Problems.
Weather Forecast
An approaching Pacific trough brings increasingly cool and unstable air. TUESDAY: Freezing level 2900m, dropping to 2400m. Increasing Cloud, moderate - strong SW winds. WEDNESDAY: Freezing Level 2000m, Cloudy, Strong SW winds easing. THURSDAY: Moderate upslope (Easterly) winds, easing, bring low cloud, cold temps, and light snowfall above 1600m.
Snowpack Summary
The snowpack is moist to wet in most areas. Strength depends on how well the surface crust recovers each night (expected poor on Tuesday). The snow will be strong while frozen, but increasingly weak with any sustained warm temperatures / during periods of strong sun. Wet Slab and glide avalanches, although Unlikely, are a concern all times of day.
Avalanche Summary
A widespread avalanche cycle (Cornice, Loose Wet, and Wet Slab avalanches, Size 1 - 2) occurred late Friday and Saturday with high freezing levels. This has slowed somewhat, but a few large natural avalanches were observed on Sunday (Loose Wet), and Monday (a Size 2.5 Cornice and Wet Slab avalanche). Many glide cracks exist - avoid these areas.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.