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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2019–Jan 9th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Main concerns: Storm Slab, Loose Wet.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Careful and continuous snow pack evaluation and cautious route-finding are key components to safe travel. Conservative decision-making is essential as reactive large avalanches will still be present. Expect to encounter on north aspects areas of extreme wind loading, be aware of these aspects and ensure to review and pick options that utilize terrain to avoid both features that promote deposition and create tension such as but not limited to convex rolls.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from avalanche control teams at Mount Washington indicate that ski cutting produced soft slab avalanches. These avalanches where small size one and triggered in isolated terrain on north and north west facing aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The snow pack received over a short period of time up to 150 cm of new storm snow. The accumulation is dependent on both the elevation and the location of terrain from west to east ( wet side to dry side ) of the island. Upper alpine areas have been stripped and pressed on south fading aspects and heavy loaded on north aspects. The snow-pack has had a chance to settle with mild temperatures and then allowed to “tighten up” or bond with a cooling trend.

Snowpack Details

Surface: variable surface conditions pressed and stripped to extremely well loaded. Upper: between 100- 150 cm of recent storm snow. Mid: December 22nd interface down 150 to 200 cm and is currently non reactive. Lower: well settled.

Past Weather

A series of winter storms brought to the region heavy precipitation amounts strong winds and rising freezing levels. In its wake freezing levels and temperatures dropped to near sea level and light to moderate precipitation in the form of snow fell with light to moderate wind.

Weather Forecast

Continued winter storms will alternate between periods of clearing and calm. Expect the temperatures and freezing levels to remain low. A surge late Tuesday early Wednesday will bring moderate east wind, moderate to heavy precipitation and rising freezing levels.

Monday Light flurries 5 cm freezing levels 250 meters and light south west wind.

Tuesday Clear and calm freezing levels near sea level light north east wind.

Wednesday 20 to 30 mm of precipitation freezing levels rising to 1500 meters moderate north east wind.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.