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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2019–Jan 17th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Avalanche hazard will gradually increase over the next few days as snow accumulates. Triggering large avalanches remains possible on steep slopes with variable snow cover.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, light southwest wind, alpine temperatures drop to -15 C.THURSDAY: Scattered flurries with 5-10 cm of low density snow, moderate southeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, strong southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.SATURDAY: 10-15 cm of snow, strong southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1300 m, alpine high temperatures around -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday.On Tuesday, several size 1-2 natural avalanches were reported in steep south facing alpine terrain (but their age is unknown).On Saturday, two large snowmobile triggered avalanches were reported on the Mountain Information Network. One was triggered on a thin, rocky, southwest facing feature near ridgecrest north of Fernie (see here for report). The other was triggered on a wind affected south facing slope at treeline in the Corbin area (see here for report).

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm alpine temperatures left crusty surfaces on southerly aspects, while the snow remained dry on northerly aspects. Old wind slabs and cornices could be lingering at higher elevations.In shallow snowpack areas, the base of the snowpack may still be composed of weak faceted grains. In deeper snowpack areas, the middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally considered to be well-settled and strong.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.