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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 31st, 2016–Apr 1st, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

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We are in the midst of the first extended spring warm up and avalanche cycle. The focus on Friday will continue on dangerous extensive loose wet snow avalanches, cornice failures and glide avalanches. There is probably as much or more danger from loose wet avalanches in the lower terrain bands as the upper bands.

Detailed Forecast

Another day of light winds, sunny weather and very warm temperatures is expected in the Olympics and Cascades on Friday. Freezing levels will probably be near or above 10,000 feet. This means the regional focus will continue on loose wet snow, cornice failures and glide avalanches.

The regional cycle of extensive, potentially large natural or triggered loose wet avalanches is expected to continue on Friday. Melt-freeze crusts can quickly break down with intense spring sunshine. In areas that have received more recent snowfall, small loose wet avalanches have the potential to entrain deeper layers. Be aware of terrain traps where even a small loose wet avalanche could have unintended consequences. Plan to avoid steep solar slopes by late morning/mid-day to minimize the problem. There is probably as much or more danger from loose wet avalanches in the lower terrain bands as the upper bands.

Many areas have massive cornices along ridge-lines so avoid slopes below these overhead hazards. Unlike the loose wet problem you will likely not get advance notice that a cornice is about to fail. Cornices can break much further back on ridges than expected and releases can be unpredictable during the spring.

The likelihood of triggering older wind slabs continues to diminish, but in isolated areas above treeline, a mix of old wind slab may still maintain an unlikely wind slab potential on a variety of previous lee slopes. Watch for cracking and firmer or chalky wind transported snow.

Although not listed as an avalanche problem, large, powerful glide avalanches can release unexpectedly so avoid areas below steep unsupported slopes or rock faces (see Lee Lazzara's filmstrip photo for a recent example).

Wet slab avalanches might also be possible but will not be listed due to the abundance of other avalanche problems.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

Snow accumulations Wednesday 3/23 to Friday 3/25 varied based on elevation with only a few inches below 4000 feet and 6-21 inches above. This snow was generally well-bonded to a moist crust buried March 21st/22nd. 

A strong front followed by a large upper trough and a cool unstable air mass crossed the Northwest Sunday and Monday. Along the west slopes most locations saw a few inches of accumulation with the highest totals of roughly 10 inches at Snoqualmie Pass and Paradise. Thanks to a convergence zone aimed at Snoqualmie Pass Sunday evening the top of Alpental accumulated 17 inches.

A large upper ridge and warm air mass is now over the Northwest causing light winds, sunny weather and the warmest temperatures by far so far this spring. Temperatures on Thursday are well into the 50's F at most NWAC sites and even the 60's F at some of the lower elevation sites on both sides of the Cascade crest.

The frequent March storms built unusually large cornices along many ridges as noted by field observers.

The mid and lower snowpack along the west slopes should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.

Recent Observations

Last Saturday large avalanches were observed on the upper elevations of the south side of Mt. Rainier, likely due to serac fall. Travelers to Camp Muir reported the avalanches on Turns All Year and the NWAC observation page.

NWAC pro-observer Lee Lazzara was on Mt Baker near the Squak Glacier Wednesday and Thursday and reported wet saturated snow in the top 30 cm of snow with many rollerballs and many small natural or triggered loose wet avalanches. He noted obvious signs of wind transport were still present on the upper mountain.

NWAC pro-observer Tom Curtis was on Mt Lichtenberg near Stevens Pass on Thursday and found widespread large natural loose wet avalanches on nearly all solar aspects with easy to trigger loose wet avalanches on non-solar slopes.

The Alpental pro-patrol on Thursday extensive natural and easily triggered ski triggered loose wet avalanches which were large on some solar slopes. Ski runs exposed to solar slopes from above were closed on Thursday. A thin surface crust rapidly melted in the morning with the upper snowpack essentially remaining wet overnight. Similar conditions are expected there Friday.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.