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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 23rd, 2019–Nov 24th, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Venture cautiously as you investigate the outcome of the storm. Very dangerous conditions are likely in areas that saw more snow than rain. Use this forecast as an initial assessment and gather information as you travel.

Post your observations to the Mountain Information Network!

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing approximately 10 cm of new snow. Strong northwest winds. Freezing level descending to 1000 metres.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. New snow totals at treeline of 10-15cm with up to a metre or more in higher alpine locations. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels to 900 metres.

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7 with freezing levels to 500 metres.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, clearing over the day. Light to moderate northeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -8.

Avalanche Summary

Observations from the succession of storms impacting the region have yet to come in, but it is expected that the significant load of new snow (along with strong winds) has been promoting widespread natural storm slab avalanches at elevations where snow has accumulated instead of rain. 

Looking forward, clearing weather is likely to make travel in the mountains a more inviting prospect, however this is a time to be on high alert in any areas where new snow buried a smooth surface. Concern is reduced in areas where the new snow hasn't yet overcome the depth of ground roughness.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain over Friday and Saturday is expected to have eroded much of the patchy snow cover that existed below the alpine while potentially adding up to a metre or more of new snow to alpine areas - potentially tripling recently observed snowpack depths at higher elevations. Beyond the sheer quantity of new load, the bond between the new snow and the melt-freeze crust on the previous surface is expected to be poor, particularly in areas that did not experience rain in advance of the recent snowfall (higher elevations).

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.