Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You can trigger an avalanche large enough to injury, bury, or kill you on wind-loaded slopes that are steeper than 30 degrees.  Recent avalanches, blowing snow, or cracking of the upper snowpack are all clear signs that wind-loaded slopes are primed to slide.  If you find yourself below the snow line, rain on snow will weaken the upper snowpack and wet avalanches will be possible.  

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds are forecasted to continue to gust in the strong category in the Blues.   At upper and mid elevations, there is ample snow to be transported by the wind, and it will be building thick drifts of snow that will likely be sensitive to the weight of a rider in steeper terrain.   Good clues to wind loading are cornices along ridgelines, a rippled and textured snow surface, cracking around your skis, and recent avalanches.   

    There are likely several "generations" of wind slabs from our recent storms, and some older wind slabs may still be reactive, but covered by either new snow or another round of wind slabs.  These could be more difficult to identify and will take getting off your machine and digging down 1-2 feet in the upper snowpack to identify recent snowpack layering.   Most of the alarming snowpack test results we have been seeing lately have been failing under a wind slab that is buried 6-8" from the surface and has softer snow below it.  (Hard over soft = unstable).

     If you ride your machine or ski across stiffened snow and stay on top of the snow, you have likely found a wind slab.  

    Avoid terrain that is or has been loaded with wind-blown snow.  Keep an eye on mid-slope features lower down from ridgelines that could be cross-loaded and be primed to catch you off guard.  Where possible, utilize small but steep test slopes to test the reactivity of newer or older windslabs. (think no taller than a single-story house with no terrain trap below).  

     

    (12/26/2024) Textured Snow and shooting cracks are clear signs of unstable and wind loaded slopes.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Lower elevations below 5,000' will likely see precipitation in the form of rain today.  If you are witnessing a rain-on-snow event, the upper snowpack will start to lose strength and you could start to see pinwheels or roller balls in the wet snow.  If you see this, wet loose avalanches will be likely and you should avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees.  Stay out from above terrain traps such as gullies, creeks, and cliffs.  

    (3/30/2023)

    Wet Loose avalanche into a gully.

Avalanche Discussion

The storm that started on Christmas night has brought a wet, windy, and wild period of weather to Northeastern Oregon.   Storm totals haven't been quite to the amounts that were advertised, but still significant, especially in the Snow Water Equivalent category.   See below for storm snow totals and snow water equivalent(SWE) totals.  

Blues: 13"/1.9"SWE (High Ridge Snotel)

Elkhorns: 13"/1.8" SWE (Bourne Snotel)

Northern Wallowas: 8"/.8" SWE (Aneroid #2 Snotel)

Southern Wallowas: 22"/3"SWE (Schneider Meadows Snotel)    10"/1.8"SWE (Taylor Green Snotel)

Give the snowpack time to adjust to the new load.  Even as significant snowfall may be tapering, there are tricky conditions out there in the form of multiple rounds of wind slabs that are in the upper 2 feet of the snowpack.  Strong winds have built windslabs lower on slopes than you might expect.  At mid and upper elevations, Mid-slope features may be cross-loaded.  Look for clues to wind slab development such as blowing snow, recent avalanches, cracking in stiffened snow, and textured/dune like features.  Avoid wind-loaded areas.  

What's going on a bit deeper?   There is still the potential to trigger a deeper avalanche into older snow.  While we have a mostly right-side-up snowpack below the new snow, there are still some layers that we are keeping an eye on.  On Friday, I found reactive and propagating results from three different layers within the upper 2 feet of the snowpack.  (See a recent observation here)  These reactive interfaces were mostly below the most recent storm's snow and have the potential to be triggered from a smaller wind slab avalanche.  We call this "stepping down". 

We have also been tracking a weak layer that was formed during high pressure around Thanksgiving.  The Thanksgiving Drought Layer (TDL) is a layer of rounding facets (healing sugar snow) that can be found 3-4 feet from the surface.  We have been conducting numerous stability tests to assess the reactiveness of the TDL, and we have seen this layer gain strength  This is a nice trend to see, it is worth continuing to keep an eye on.   Suspect areas that may harbor this unstable layer are mid and upper elevations, on the northern half of the compass, and in thin snowpack depths.   You can read some recent observations that target this layer here. 

If you get out into the backcountry today, let us know what you are seeing by submitting an observation here.   I plan to go dig some snowpits around Spout Springs today and will have more information on the state of the snowpack in the Blues.  

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