Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You can trigger a large avalanche that breaks up to several feet thick in some steep terrain features, as demonstrated by this human-triggered avalanche over the weekend in the Anthracites and several reports of collapsing snowpack around the forecast area.  Carefully consider terrain consequences and snowpack structure before traveling on or near slopes steeper than 30 degrees.   Smaller, simpler terrain or riding on wind sheltered southerly aspects is the most reliable strategy for managing today's avalanche concerns.   Severe cold will complicate any accidents or rescues today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Slabs up to several feet thick can be triggered where they formed over well-developed facets and collapsible crusts on west, north, and east aspects. Additionally, heavily wind-loaded slabs can be triggered above buried crusts on high-elevation, southerly aspects.  Slab behavior is challenging with variable and deceptive feedback, remote triggering potential, and wide propagation across terrain features.  Sheltered slopes with snow depths around 80 to 120 cm and thin areas in previously wind-drifted terrain appear to be the most problematic. You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees without steeper slopes above you, and most mid to low-elevation southerly aspects lack the problem.  

    Our most recent persistent slab in the Anthracites appears to be triggered by a skier or rider on 1/18/2025.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Manage for shallow instabilities in the recent now.  These will most commonly be relatively small slabs of wind-drifted snow at higher elevations and loose avalanches in wind-protected terrain or lower elevations.  New snow instabilities can entrain older, weak snow below and grow in size on the north half of the compass.  Use small, steep test slopes to gather feedback on the problem.  Look for cracking and recent drifts below leeward ridgelines or point-release avalanches breaking at the tips of your skis or machine to identify the problems.  

    An example of a shallow storm instability that entrained older, weaker snow on a northerly aspect of Mt. Axtell. 

Avalanche Discussion

As much as we'd like to change the record, the track is on repeat under relatively stagnant weather and avalanche conditions.  Improvements to the snowpack will be very gradual in the upcoming week of dry weather.  If you've got some extra time cozying up by the fireplace, check out this excellent video from one of the leading snow scientists in Canada.  This video describes the situation that characterizes much of our higher-elevation terrain.  At lower elevations, many of our slabs are thin and soft enough that it's not a question of finding a thin trigger spot as much as whether the slab is still intact and has the ingredients for propagating a failure or whether it has decayed to a point where it's now benign.   Continued faceting this week will transition more slopes into the latter category as time goes on, and we'll also see facet sluffs like these continuing: "persistent dry loose avalanches."

Not many folks braved the alpine yesterday, but Irwin's observation highlights continued wind transport and very small wind slabs forming in their windward west-facing terrain.  I suspect drifts will be thicker and more of a hazard on some leeward terrain features facing east or southeast, especially those fed by larger fetches.   This relatively small problem should be on a healing trend now that wind transport has ended, though cold temps make for gradual changes.  For simplicity, we've bundled our facet sluff problem and wind slab problem into one small storm snow problem.  The most hazardous features for these shallow issues are 1: heavily drifted slopes in the alpine or 2: very steep, frequent flier terrain on the north half of the compass (terrain like Climax Chutes), where repeated avalanche activity this season has left the snowpack weak, cohesionless, and capable of entraining what's left of the snowpack once a shallow sluff gets moving.   

Regions covered