Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Fresh wind slabs are forming in the upper elevations where strong easterly winds and a few inches of snow arrived overnight. These wind slabs should only be up to 1' deep, but have the potential to trigger an avalanche 4 to 6' deep or more on a weak layer buried below the snow from the last two storms. Safer terrain and softer snow can be found in places that are protected from the wind. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Turnagain Pass Motorised Use:  The Forest Service has opened Turnagain Pass to motorized use. This is the only area on the Chugach National Forest that received enough snow to open, all other areas remain closed. Low snow cover hazards exist in the flats such as open creeks and countless alders. We have limited information for much of this zone and ask that extra caution is used if riding on the steeper slopes.

Turnagain Pass Master Plan:  A public Meeting for the 'Turnagain Pass Master Plan' is happening today, noon to 2pm - Virtual. Link HERE. This is a comprehensive plan that outlines the potential development of parking areas, trails and pathways, and programs, expected in the 20 years to come.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong easterly winds picked up last night and with a few inches of new snow there will be small fresh wind slabs up to 1' deep forming in the upper elevations. These could be big enough to take you off your feet or machine and there's potential they could trigger a very large avalanche failing on weak snow 4 to 6' deep (see problem 2).  A cautious approach and an assessment mindset is warranted in avalanche terrain today, especially in areas like upper Seattle Ridge Drainage that has seen little traffic yet this year.

    Keeping terrain choices small and choosing slopes that spread out at the bottom and don't end in a creek or gully (terrain trap) is a good plan. Fresh wind slabs usually give some feedback like shooting cracks and jumping or riding on small test slopes is a good way to test this problem. 

     

    (1/14/2025)

    Wind affected surfaces at 2200' on Seattle Ridge.

    Photo: Michael Kerst

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    It has been just three days since an intense storm deposited 4 to 5' of snow in Turnagain Pass. The weak snow that is the culprit of the deep persistent slab problem is now 4 to 6' or more below the surface (below the last 2 storms worth of snow) and, if triggered, would create a very large and destructive avalanche that would be difficult to survive. The way to completely avoid this is to stay away from steep slopes above 2,500'. 

    Because this problem is so difficult to assess, we don't know exactly how likley it is that a human could trigger an avalanche of this type. We do know that deep slabs are usually triggered from a thin spot in the snowpack near rocky areas. This problem doesn't tend to give any feedback and it could be the second, third, eighth or ninth skier on the slope that triggers one of these avalanches. If you are getting into steep terrain, safe travel protocols are essential. Travel one at a time and watch your partners. Places that are normally safe may not be when avalanches this large are possible, so factor that in when choosing safe spots.

     

    (1/14/2025)

    Crowns across Seattle Creek, ran almost to valley bottom, likely from the storm on Sunday, January 12.

    Photo: Michael Kerst

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