Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are likely today as stormy weather moves out this morning. These avalanches could be large and span entire slopes if they break in buried weak layers. They could also be smaller wind slabs, storm slabs, and cornice falls. The mountains have seen heavy snow and wind for three days. As skies clear, a VERY cautious mindset and conservative travel is recommended. Sticking to lower angle slopes with nothing steep above you can be a good way to enjoy the powder without worrying about an avalanche.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

AK DOT&PF Avalanche Closure Notification for Monday January 27th, 2025: There will be intermittent traffic delays for Avalanche Hazard Reduction work for the following areas:

  • From mileposts 83 to 88 on the Seward Highway, south of Girdwood and north of Portage, motorists should expect delays of up to 45-60 minutes between 09:00 AM and 12:00 PM.
  • From milepost 3 to 5 on the Portage Glacier Highway, motorists should expect delays of 45-60 minutes between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM.

Updates will be posted on the 511 system. 511.alaska.gov

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Here is quick rundown on the storm snow avalanches that could be triggered apart from the large deep slab avalanches mentioned above:

    Storm Slab Avalanches:  On sheltered slopes where the new snow has not bonded yet, storm slabs could be triggered. These would be anywhere from 1-2' deep and related to how much new snow fell in that location.

    Wind Slab Avalanches: Strong easterly winds during the storm have formed wind slabs in the higher elevations as well as exposed areas in the mid elevations. Continued winds along the higher terrain could continue forming wind slabs today. Wind slabs could be many feet deep and span entire slopes.

    Cornice Falls: Cornices could be teetering on the brink of failure. These can be disastrous in themselves, but could also trigger an avalanche below, creating a worse situation. Give cornices a very wide berth. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    After a 3-day onslaught of warm, wet, and windy weather, skies should be clearing today. A few snow flurries may fall, but for all intents and purposes the precipitation should be wrapped up. Ridgetop winds however are still blowing 20s mph with gusts near 40 from the south where they are expected to remain until backing off this afternoon. 

    Recent Avalanches:  Widespread natural avalanche activity was seen/heard over the past 2 days. Much of this was in the Girdwood Valley where the most snow fell. Summit Lake was also reported to have several large avalanches. However, due to poor visibility we don't know much of what occurred yet in many places, especially Turnagain Pass. 

    Estimated storm totals since Friday:

    • Girdwood: ~6" snow water equivalent (SWE)/4-5' snow
    • Turnagain Pass: 2-3" SWE/18-30" snow
    • Summit Lake: ~2" SWE/18-24" snow
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 2-3" SWE/24-30" snow

    Today is one of those 'first day after a big storm' days. This means our hackles should be up, especially in the Summit Lake area where the snowpack harbors a number of buried weak layers and has been producing very large avalanches lately.

    Deep Persistent Slab Avalanches: The new snow has once again overloaded the weak snowpack in Summit Lake. Natural avalanches are not expected today, but large human triggered slabs could occur. These could break near the base of the snowpack and take out entire bowls. This is a dangerous setup and tricky because our usual signs of unstable snow don't always show themselves. Those signs are cracking in the snow around you, collapsing/whumpfing of the snowpack under you, or recent avalanches. That said, if any of these are encountered then it's a sure bet the snow is unstable.

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