Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

This remotely triggered avalanche near Pittsburg and these fresh avalanches in Red Lady Bowl are good examples of today's primary concern: easily triggering avalanches breaking near the ground on the old, weak snow that sat around in November.  Beware of remote triggering from nearby steep slopes.  The danger is most acute on the north half of the compass and could also exist on some high-elevation southerly slopes that held onto early-season snow.  Observers yesterday reported good stability in steep terrain where snowfall from the past week fell on dirt.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The past week of snowfall and wind drifting has formed sensitive slabs up to several feet thick over facets near the ground.  These weak layers are most widespread on the north half of the compass and exist as collapsible crusts on some high-elevation southeast slopes.  Shooting cracks and collapses are clear warnings, but be aware that feedback can disappear where slabs have grown thick and stiff.  Persistent slabs can break well above you and be triggered remotely from low-angle terrain adjacent to or below steep slopes.   The most reliable way to avoid the problem is terrain selection: stick to slope angles consistently less than about 30 degrees or travel on terrain that was bare ground through November.  

    An example of a remotely triggered persistent slab in upper Yule Creek.  

    (12/6/2025)

Avalanche Discussion

As natural activity from Saturday’s storm rolls into the database, clear patterns are emerging about where you can trigger avalanches on old, weak layers near the ground. The north half of the compass—especially sheltered or leeward terrain—has been the most active. These slopes held weak, sugary facets through the November drought and are most problematic. With last week’s winds often loading toward the southeast, we’ve also seen avalanches on high, southerly terrain.  Some of these upper-elevation, leeward slopes retained old snow through the drought and deserve equal caution. While much of the recent activity likely failed as wind slabs on short-lived weak layers, our late-November fieldwork shows that a collapsible crust-facet combo forms the base of the snowpack on some high southeast or west-facing slopes.  This leaves the door open for persistent slab behavior as well.

Below treeline, the November weak layer is buried about a foot deep in the shallow areas near town and roughly two feet deep in favored zones like Kebler Pass and the Upper Slate—deeper still at higher elevations. Slab thickness is currently in the “sweet spot” for human triggering, and we’re essentially in a holding pattern until the snowpack starts to show signs of adjusting. Yesterday’s booming collapses and remote triggers are clear evidence that it is not there yet. We expect to see gradual improvements through the week, but for now, the structure is still reactive enough to warrant patience and conservative terrain choices.

Regions covered