Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger an avalanche once wind-drifted snow accumulates in steep north and east-facing terrain at middle and upper elevations. Snow deeper than your boot tops, shooting cracks, and plumes of snow near ridgelines are all signs of today’s developing avalanche problem. 

Overnight avalanche hazard is likely to reach considerable with changing winds and continued snowfall. Limit your time underneath avalanche paths as natural avalanches are possible.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    What and where is it: 3-7 inches of snow are forecast to fall today with strong southwest winds. New wind slabs will likely form in north, northeast, and east aspects that are small and reactive. Later in the day as slabs thicken, you could encounter a large wind slab that could bury you.

    How can you recognize it: Plumes of snow near ridgelines are a sign of actively developing wind slabs. Look for accumulating snow that is soft, cohesive, and deeper than your boot tops. You may also encounter shooting cracks.

    How can you manage it: Dig down to the firm old snow surface and use column tests and hand shears to assess sensitivity. The hazard is changing throughout the day, so factor in timing and changing conditions in today’s tour plan if you choose to enter avalanche terrain. 

Avalanche Discussion

Expect to find dynamic weather that will increase today’s avalanche hazard throughout the day. This morning, you are likely to find firm surfaces on north and east-facing terrain, while south-facing terrain was observed by forecasters to have small, isolated, and stubborn wind slabs. 

As snow begins to accumulate and drift, the avalanche hazard will increase in steep north and east-facing terrain. These slabs are likely to be reactive, soft, and may not bond well to the firm old snow surface that could act as today’s bedsurface. Our uncertainty today is around snow totals and slab size. Weather models have a lack of alignment around snow totals and storm track, if the storm shifts further south, snow totals will be on the lower end. 

The other question is slab size. Since low-density snow is forecast, slab development may be less productive if winds are on the higher end of the forecast. Track both snow accumulation and slab size as you travel throughout avalanche terrain today, and expect the hazard to increase. 

Overnight, snowfall is forecast to continue and winds will shift west. Watch out for when the avalanche hazard will increase from moderate to considerable as slab sizes will increase to be large enough to bury you. The combination of increasing avalanche hazard and poor visibility will make overnight travel in avalanche terrain increasingly dangerous 

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts. 

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