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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2012–Mar 17th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions are expected for Saturday and Sunday. Light winds and convective snow showers are forecast to bring up to 10 cm on Saturday. Clearing overnight should turn to broken skies during the day on Sunday. There may be some clearing on Monday if a ridge of high pressure extends far enough north. If the ridge does not go far enough north, then expect cloud and scattered flurries to move in from the northwest.

Avalanche Summary

One natural size 2.0 was reported from 1800 metres on a SE aspect that was 50 cm deep on Thursday. Earlier in the week natural avalanches and natural cornice falls up to size 3.5 were reported.

Snowpack Summary

The region has received about 35 cm of new snow in the past 2 days. Recent moderate to strong winds have transported available snow into thick windslabs in the alpine and at treeline, and have added weak new growth to the large cornices in the region. The new snow has added to the well consolidated storm slab that overlies weak surfaces that formed early February. This interface, which lies between 1 and 2 metres below the surface, includes a widespread surface hoar instability that, depending on aspect an elevation, may exist in combination with facets or crusts. These persistent weak layers have been reactive all week and remain a concern at all elevations. The weight of new snow, near-surface avalanches, sleds, and skiers may easily trigger these deeper weaknesses creating unexpectedly large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.