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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2014–Jan 28th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

As danger approaches LOW across the board, it's a good time to remind ourselves that low danger doesn't mean no danger.Food for thought on this blog post.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: Temperatures are forecast to fall through out the week.  A week frontal system is expected to arrive on Wednesday.Tuesday: Clear skies / Light west winds / Freezing level at 1000mWednesday: Light snowfall / Light west winds / Freezing level at 1000mThursday: Scattered flurries / Light north-west winds / Freezing level at 600m

Avalanche Summary

With recent warm alpine temperatures natural avalanches to size 2.5 were reported on steep solar aspects. In a couple of cases, avalanche activity occurred as a wet slab and ran to ground.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of snow overlies a variety of surfaces which include old, stubborn wind slabs in exposed upper elevation terrain and well developed surface hoar in sheltered terrain. Surface hoar continues to grow at treeline and below while sun-exposed slopes are now sporting a melt-freeze crust.Ongoing moderate daytime temperatures have promoted settlement within the snowpack, while cool nights have allowed for significant surface faceting.Closer to the ground, below a generally strong mid pack, there are 2 layers of note: the late November surface hoar, and a crust/facet combo from October. These layers have become unlikely to trigger (although still possible with the right input such as a cornice fall, a heavy load over a thin spot in steep terrain, or a rapid temperature change). That said, avalanches at these interfaces would be large and destructive.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.